Starting from the studies in my meta-analysis, we can try to estimate an upper bound on how big any effect would be, if it actually existed. One of the most promising null results, Southon et al 1994, turns out to be not very informative: if we punch in the number of kids, we find that they needed a large effect size (d=0.81) before they could see anything:
The use of prescription stimulants is especially prevalent among students.[9] Surveys suggest that 0.7–4.5% of German students have used cognitive enhancers in their lifetime.[10][11][12] Stimulants such as dimethylamylamine and methylphenidate are used on college campuses and by younger groups.[13] Based upon studies of self-reported illicit stimulant use, 5–35% of college students use diverted ADHD stimulants, which are primarily intended for performance enhancement rather than as recreational drugs.[14][15][16] Several factors positively and negatively influence an individual's willingness to use a drug for the purpose of enhancing cognitive performance. Among them are personal characteristics, drug characteristics, and characteristics of the social context.[10][11][17][18]
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