With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:
As you may or may not know, curcumin has become a darling of the nutrition world in the last several years, thanks to a flurry of research that indicates the turmeric derivative can do everything from support the brain to reduce painful body-wide inflammation to even support positive mood. You can learn more about the research behind curcumin here:
These days, young, ambitious professionals prefer prescription stimulants—including methylphenidate (usually sold as Ritalin) and Adderall—that are designed to treat people with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and are more common and more acceptable than cocaine or nicotine (although there is a black market for these pills). ADHD makes people more likely to lose their focus on tasks and to feel restless and impulsive. Diagnoses of the disorder have been rising dramatically over the past few decades—and not just in kids: In 2012, about 16 million Adderall prescriptions were written for adults between the ages of 20 and 39, according to a report in the New York Times. Both methylphenidate and Adderall can improve sustained attention and concentration, says Barbara Sahakian, professor of clinical neuropsychology at the University of Cambridge and author of the 2013 book Bad Moves: How Decision Making Goes Wrong, and the Ethics of Smart Drugs. But the drugs do have side effects, including insomnia, lack of appetite, mood swings, and—in extreme cases—hallucinations, especially when taken in amounts the exceed standard doses. Take a look at these 10 foods that help you focus.
I can test fish oil for mood, since the other claimed benefits like anti-schizophrenia are too hard to test. The medical student trial (Kiecolt-Glaser et al 2011) did not see changes until visit 3, after 3 weeks of supplementation. (Visit 1, 3 weeks, visit 2, supplementation started for 3 weeks, visit 3, supplementation continued 3 weeks, visit 4 etc.) There were no tests in between the test starting week 1 and starting week 3, so I can’t pin it down any further. This suggests randomizing in 2 or 3 week blocks. (For an explanation of blocking, see the footnote in the Zeo page.)
the rise of IP scofflaw countries which enable the manufacture of known drugs: India does not respect the modafinil patents, enabling the cheap generics we all use, and Chinese piracetam manufacturers don’t give a damn about the FDA’s chilling-effect moves in the US. If there were no Indian or Chinese manufacturers, where would we get our modafinil? Buy them from pharmacies at $10 a pill or worse? It might be worthwhile, but think of the chilling effect on new users.
Elaborating on why the psychological side effects of testosterone injection are individual dependent: Not everyone get the same amount of motivation and increased goal seeking from the steroid and most people do not experience periods of chronic avolition. Another psychological effect is a potentially drastic increase in aggression which in turn can have negative social consequences. In the case of counterfactual Wedrifid he gets a net improvement in social consequences. He has observed that aggression and anger are a prompt for increased ruthless self-interested goal seeking. Ruthless self-interested goal seeking involves actually bothering to pay attention to social politics. People like people who do social politics well. Most particularly it prevents acting on contempt which is what Wedrifid finds prompts the most hostility and resentment in others. Point is, what is a sanity promoting change in one person may not be in another.
That first night, I had severe trouble sleeping, falling asleep in 30 minutes rather than my usual 19.6±11.9, waking up 12 times (5.9±3.4), and spending ~90 minutes awake (18.1±16.2), and naturally I felt unrested the next day; I initially assumed it was because I had left a fan on (moving air keeps me awake) but the new potassium is also a possible culprit. When I asked, Kevin said:
At SelfHacked, it’s our goal to offer our readers all the tools possible to get optimally healthy. When I was struggling with chronic health issues I felt stuck because I didn’t have any tools to help me get better. I had to spend literally thousands of hours trying to read through studies on pubmed to figure out how the body worked and how to fix it.
TianChi Chinese Adaptogenic Herb Complex: The list of herbs and ingredients in the supplement TianChi is far too long to include here, but in short, it contains nearly every natural Chinese adaptogen and natural nootropic you’ve read about so far in this article. So when it comes to a purely non-synthetic approach to mental enhancement, this blend tops the totem pole. All of the herbs in TianChi are wildcrafted (gathering of plants from their native “wild” environment) or organic, non-GMO, Kosher Certified, non-irradiated and pesticide free, then formulated in small batches by a Chinese herbal medicine practitioner in Oregon. The herbs are extracted in purified water and test free of heavy metals. Most adaptogens purchased in today’s market are standardized 5:1 extract; meaning that it takes five pounds of herb to make one pound of extract. This is not always effective as some herbs may have to extract out at 10:1 in order to gain their natural strength. In contrast, the adaptogens in TianChi are extracted at a 45:1 ratio, making this one of the more potent blends out there. Strangely enough, I’ve found the brain-boosting effects of TianChi to be even more enhanced when consumed with beet juice or beet powder, probably due to the vasodilation effect of the beets. This is one of my favorite blends to mix up on a mid-morning or mid-afternoon an empty stomach for a very clear-headed cognitive high.
Nootropics include natural and manmade chemicals that produce cognitive benefits. These substances are used to make smart pills that deliver results for enhancing memory and learning ability, improving brain function, enhancing the firing control mechanisms in neurons, and providing protection for the brain. College students, adult professionals, and elderly people are turning to supplements to get the advantages of nootropic substances for memory, focus, and concentration.
Increase your memory, alertness, energy and focus with the most revolutionary “limitless” pill ever created. As we age, our brains start to slow down both in reaction time and in the recalling of memories. That’s why we need to not only regain our mental capacity, we need to enhance it to such heights that we go well beyond where we started. When you use the dietary supplement Addium, you can total replenish and revitalize your mental alertness in a safe, all-natural way. Made of some of the most powerful brain enhancing ingredients on the market, Addium can be used each day to increase memory function, enhance brain power, increase physical energy and stay sharper and more focused. Don’t just settle for feeling like everyone else; it’s time to take your mind to a limitless state of mental preparedness. Addium Brain Enhancing Dietary Supplement also contains the following benefits: • Boosts your capacity for learning • Increases your alertness and focus • Safe and all natural • Promotes strong brain function • Enhances memory and performance Addium contains: Vitamin B6 - An economical source for cardio health and energy metabolism. Addium contains a Proprietary Blend of: Acetyl L-Carnitine - Energizes the mind and promotes concentration. L-Theanine - Enhances endocrine function, stimulating some brain waves and leaving others unaffected. Caffeine - Increase mental alertness. Rhodiola Rosea Extract - Fights the physical and mental effects of stress. Bacopa Monnieri Extract – This ingredient increases cerebral blood flow and cognitive function at the same time.

Coconut oil was recommended by Pontus Granström on the Dual N-Back mailing list for boosting energy & mental clarity. It is fairly cheap (~$13 for 30 ounces) and tastes surprisingly good; it has a very bad reputation in some parts, but seems to be in the middle of a rehabilitation. Seth Robert’s Buttermind experiment found no mental benefits to coconut oil (and benefits to eating butter), but I wonder.

The important factors seem to be: #1/MR6 (Creativity.self.rating, Time.Bitcoin, Time.Backups, Time.Blackmarkets, Gwern.net.linecount.log), #2/MR1 (Time.PDF, Time.Stats), #7/MR7 (Time.Writing, Time.Sysadmin, Time.Programming, Gwern.net.patches.log), and #8/MR8 (Time.States, Time.SRS, Time.Sysadmin, Time.Backups, Time.Blackmarkets). The rest seem to be time-wasting or reflect dual n-back/DNB usage (which is not relevant in the LLLT time period).
Oxidative stress refers to a biochemical process that occurs as a result of an accumulative everyday exposure to toxic burdens such as chemicals in cosmetics, furniture, paints, cars, and pollution. Our body has its own way of armouring itself from the damage that exposure to toxins can create through its production of endogenous antioxidants, which is nature’s way of neutralising oxidative stress. Although we have our own production of these wonder molecules, when we are continuously overloaded with toxins in our environment and have problems detoxifying, the liver can become overwhelmed. Research shows that over time oxidative stress can lead to an increase in inflammatory molecules such as cytokines, which have been shown to correlate with depression (5).This is why it is important to have a high intake of nutrients that support the liver in metabolising and removing toxins from the body, as well as regulating the inflammatory response. There are a few things we can change in our diet to support this area, for example eating foods such as the cruciferous family of vegetables which includes kale, cauliflower, broccoli and cabbage. These are particularly effective at supporting the liver in ushering out toxins as they all share an antioxidant compound called indole-3 Carbinol, which plays an important role in liver health (6). In addition, bitter greens such as collard greens, rocket, chicory and swiss chard are also great for supporting the liver’s own antioxidant defence system.
"In an era of confusion about what we should eat, Brain Food is a shining light. This is the straight story about 'neuro-nutrition' firmly rooted in research by a neuroscientist who has a deep understanding of how food affects our cognitive health. Dr. Mosconi gives us advice we can easily implement into our lives and a story about the science behind it that is both delightful and accessible. A must read!"
I tried taking whole pills at 1 and 3 AM. I felt kind of bushed at 9 AM after all the reading, and the 50 minute nap didn’t help much - I was sleep only around 10 minutes and spent most of it thinking or meditation. Just as well the 3D driver is still broken; I doubt the scores would be reasonable. Began to perk up again past 10 AM, then felt more bushed at 1 PM, and so on throughout the day; kind of gave up and began watching & finishing anime (Amagami and Voices of a Distant Star) for the rest of the day with occasional reading breaks (eg. to start James C. Scotts Seeing Like A State, which is as described so far). As expected from the low quality of the day, the recovery sleep was bigger than before: a full 10 hours rather than 9:40; the next day, I slept a normal 8:50, and the following day ~8:20 (woken up early); 10:20 (slept in); 8:44; 8:18 (▁▇▁▁). It will be interesting to see whether my excess sleep remains in the hour range for ’good modafinil nights and two hours for bad modafinil nights.
One might suggest just going to the gym or doing other activities which may increase endogenous testosterone secretion. This would be unsatisfying to me as it introduces confounds: the exercise may be doing all the work in any observed effect, and certainly can’t be blinded. And blinding is especially important because the 2011 review discusses how some studies report that the famed influence of testosterone on aggression (eg. Wedrifid’s anecdote above) is a placebo effect caused by the folk wisdom that testosterone causes aggression & rage!
Similar delicacies from around the world include Mexican tacos de sesos.[1] The Anyang tribe of Cameroon practiced a tradition in which a new tribal chief would consume the brain of a hunted gorilla, while another senior member of the tribe would eat the heart.[2] Indonesian cuisine specialty in Minangkabau cuisine also served beef brain in a coconut-milk gravy named gulai otak (beef brain curry).[3][4] In Cuban cuisine, "brain fritters" are made by coating pieces of brain with bread crumbs and then frying them.[5]
She speaks from professional and personal experience. When she first moved to the United States from Italy at age 24 she was struck by how shifting from the Mediterranean-style diet she grew up on to a standard American diet negatively impacted her physical health and work performance. The experience led her to more closely study nutrition and the link between diet and brain health. In this excerpt from a longer interview, she discusses the brain foods you should be eating.

Dr. Lisa Mosconi, PhD, INHC, is the associate director of the Alzheimer's Prevention Clinic at Weill Cornell Medical College (WCMC)/NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, where she was recruited as an associate professor of Neuroscience in Neurology. She also is an adjunct faculty member in the Department of Psychiatry at NYU School of Medicine, in the Department of Nutrition at NYU Steinhardt School of Nutrition and Public Health, and in the Departments of Neurology and Nuclear Medicine at the University of Florence (Italy). Formerly, Dr. Mosconi founded and was the director of the Nutrition & Brain Fitness Lab at New York University School of Medicine (NYU), and an assistant professor in the NYU Department of Psychiatry, where she served as the director of the Family History of Alzheimer's disease research program. Dr. Mosconi holds a dual PhD degree in Neuroscience and Nuclear Medicine from the University of Florence, Italy, and is a board certified integrative nutritionist and holistic healthcare practitioner. She is well known for her research on the early detection of Alzheimer's disease and is passionately interested in the mitigation and prevention of memory loss through lifestyle modifications including diet, nutrition, and physical and intellectual fitness.
“We didn’t see significant long-term effects from the dosage used,” said Wen-Jun Gao, a professor of neurobiology at the Drexel University College of Medicine, and one of the authors of the study. He added that the brain doesn’t fully stop developing until age 25 or 30, making cognitive enhancement potentially risky even for users who are well into adulthood.

Seriously Man, you obviously have a deep love of God and the teachings of Jesus. You’re not being watched and judged like some kindergartener to make sure you obey the teacher. You were given a mind and free will to explore the world both physical and spiritual. If you do it in the spirit of God’s love and the love of four fellow man, AND YOURSELF….don’t forget God loves you too, then the only darkness here is the judgement you’re putting on yourself and your own actions. Jesus said the kingdom of heaven is within…..he meant within YOU, each of us. Your looking without and asking is it OK? If it brings you closer to the light of the spirit it’s OK, if you make a mistake, it’s OK. This very wise woman, brimming with God’s love said to me one day, with all the love and joy I’ve ever seen in someone’s heart………” I just had the most incredible realization.” ” What, I said” ” God forgives us for our sins before we even commit them” My hair immediately stood on end in response to the deep truth of this which to me is ,,,,,,,,,GOD, the UNIVERSAL SPIRIT WHICH IS ALL CREATION DOES NOT JUDGE” Judgement is in the prevue of Man in an effort to control other men. You are free, and always have been and always will be. You are loved, always have been and always will be. It just the way things are, it’s called perfection.
It goes without saying that ensuring your brain performs at its top capacity levels is every person’s priority. However, the trouble is this is something easier said than done. We live in the extremely competitive and demanding modern world. That’s a fact. We aren’t getting any younger. That’s also a fact. The inevitable aging process takes a toll on our mental capacity and brain itself, as well. So, what can you do about it? Natural supplements can boost your brain power in an efficient and harmless way. This is how one of these supplements named Brain Pill caught our attention.
The main concern with pharmaceutical drugs is adverse effects, which also apply to nootropics with undefined effects. Long-term safety evidence is typically unavailable for nootropics.[13] Racetams — piracetam and other compounds that are structurally related to piracetam — have few serious adverse effects and low toxicity, but there is little evidence that they enhance cognition in people having no cognitive impairments.[19]