With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:

The desire to improve cognitive functioning has probably existed since the dawn of human consciousness. Throughout our evolution, increased mental agility has been associated with fitness and improved odds of survival and success. Although concoctions to stimulate brainpower have existed in Chinese and Indian medicine for hundreds of years, Western nootropics were not developed until 1964.
Ampakines bind to AMPARs to block uptake of glutamate, thereby increasing synaptic responses, and this has indeed been shown to minimize the effects of conditions such as Alzheimer’s. Ampakines are also being studied as possible treatments for schizophrenia, depression, ADHD and more. But there is a huge risk associated with ampakine consumption. They are now tightly regulated because if you exceed a safe dosage, you will begin to suffer neuronal damage from glutamate toxicity, which leads to some of the very conditions that ampakines are thought to attenuate. Ampakine consumption can also lead to a decrease in long-term synaptic depression (LTD), a process by which specific synapses (the space between neurons across which information is sent) are intentionally weakened in order to avoid a plateau in the efficiency of your synapses. In other words, it allows your neurons and their connections to continue growing in efficiency. LTD is believed to be necessary for healthy synaptic plasticity (the adaptability of synapses), memory function and motor skills. To be honest, there is debate over whether cognitive functions like motor learning are truly dependent upon LTD, but it is possible that if you were to take a higher-than-recommended dose of an ampakine, the overstimulation that would result may lead to suppressed LTD and consequently to poor memory and motor function.
Second, users are concerned with the possibility of withdrawal if they stop taking the nootropics. They worry that if they stop taking nootropics they won’t be as smart as when they were taking nootropics, and will need to continue taking them to function. Some users report feeling a slight brain fog when discontinuing nootropics, but that isn’t a sign of regression.

It makes no sense to ban the use of neuroenhancers. Too many people are already taking them, and the users tend to be educated and privileged people who proceed with just enough caution to avoid getting into trouble. Besides, Anjan Chatterjee is right that there is an apt analogy with plastic surgery. In a consumer society like ours, if people are properly informed about the risks and benefits of neuroenhancers, they can make their own choices about how to alter their minds, just as they can make their own decisions about shaping their bodies.
Your brain is essentially a network of billions of neurons connected by synapses. These neurons communicate and work together through chemicals known as neurotransmitters. When neurotransmitters are able to send signals more efficiently, you experience improved concentration, better memory, mood elevation, increased processing ability for mental work, and longer attention spans.
The bitter reality of life is that there’s no organ of our body, which can defy the effects of aging with success. At least not entirely on its own. That’s why we need supplements in the first place. Remember? That’s only the beginning of the bad news for your brain. Certain sections of our brain, especially prefrontal cortex and hippocampus, can be seriously reduced in size as you are getting older. In addition, the number of capillaries in your head reduces, as well. Let’s not forget the arteries that become narrower and therefore limit the blood flow.
A picture is worth a thousand words, particularly in this case where there seems to be temporal effects, different trends for the conditions, and general confusion. So, I drag up 2.5 years of MP data (for context), plot all the data, color by magnesium/non-magnesium, and fit different LOESS lines to each as a sort of smoothed average (since categorical data is hard to interpret as a bunch of dots), which yields:
Looking at the prices, the overwhelming expense is for modafinil. It’s a powerful stimulant - possibly the single most effective ingredient in the list - but dang expensive. Worse, there’s anecdotal evidence that one can develop tolerance to modafinil, so we might be wasting a great deal of money on it. (And for me, modafinil isn’t even very useful in the daytime: I can’t even notice it.) If we drop it, the cost drops by a full $800 from $1761 to $961 (almost halving) and to $0.96 per day. A remarkable difference, and if one were genetically insensitive to modafinil, one would definitely want to remove it.
Upon examining the photographs, I noticed no difference in eye color, but it seems that my move had changed the ambient lighting in the morning and so there was a clear difference between the two sets of photographs! The before photographs had brighter lighting than the after photographs. Regardless, I decided to run a small survey on QuickSurveys/Toluna to confirm my diagnosis of no-change; the survey was 11 forced-choice pairs of photographs (before-after), with the instructions as follows:
Artichoke + Forskolin: There is plenty of evidence that suggests artichoke extract supplements (made from the leaves of artichokes) offer strong neural antioxidant properties. Additionally, Forskolin (Coleus forskohlii) is one of the few studied compounds known to naturally boost cAMP (Cyclic Adenosine Monophosphate) in your brain and is also important for neural signaling within brain cells (291m 292). I’ve experienced noticeably enhanced memory and word recall when consuming this combo. Tim Ferriss talked about this one a bit in my podcast with him, particularly referencing its presence in the somewhat popular cognition supplement “CILTEP”. Made primarily from artichoke extracts and forskolin, CILTEP is a stack that also contains vitamin B6, L-phenylalanine and acetyl-L-carnitine.  It is recommended to take two to three capsules at the beginning of each day and to skip dosage one or two days per week to achieve optimal results.

“Who doesn’t want to maximize their cognitive ability? Who doesn’t want to maximize their muscle mass?” asks Murali Doraiswamy, who has led several trials of cognitive enhancers at Duke University Health System and has been an adviser to pharmaceutical and supplement manufacturers as well as the Food and Drug Administration. He attributes the demand to an increasingly knowledge-based society that values mental quickness and agility above all else.


Pyritinol: Pyritinol has anti-oxidant effects for supporting the long-term health of the brain. But its primary benefit is aiding glucose uptake for periods of extended mental strain. If you are studying or working for a long period of time, your brain will start to diminish its glucose (sugar) stores which are the primary way that the brain derives its energy.
After many years recruiting teens from across the city to join us for a year of culinary adventures, we’re relying on the city’s network of talented youth service providers to fill the gap and cultivate the next generation of smart, resilient youth leaders. While this isn’t where we wanted to be, we’re reaching for gratitude and sharing KUDOS one last time.

There’s not much to say here because there are no side-effects, which you can associate with Brain Pill. To this date, there hasn’t been a single report about the serious side-effects, so you can have the total peace of mind when it comes to this product. Brain Pill is about its 100% natural and harmless ingredients. There’s nothing artificial about it. There are no harmful chemicals. Therefore, there’s nothing to worry about. For what is worth, you are strongly advised to consult with your doctor first if you are suffering from an existing precondition or you are using special medication. In addition, you should exercise your brain on a regular basis to maximize the effectiveness of Brain Pill. So far, you kept hearing that the only way of delaying the negative aging effects on your brain was to engage yourself in mental activities. That’s true, but it is also true that you can achieve so much more when these activities are combined with natural supplements, such as Brain Pill. If you keep your brain occupied by doing cognitive tasks, such as playing memory games or solving crossword puzzles, and you use Brain Pill on a regular basis, you can expect significant improvements of your brain power and mental sharpness.


Vinpocetine: This chemical is a semi-synthetic derivative of an extract from periwinkle.  It acts as a potent anti-inflammatory agent, and has also received some testing as a supplement for memory enhancement.  While research results are inconclusive right now, this chemical has been shown to increase blood circulation and metabolism in the brain and may slow down neuron loss.  Some tests have also shown that it can improve concentration and attention.
Related to the famous -racetams but reportedly better (and much less bulky), Noopept is one of the many obscure Russian nootropics. (Further reading: Google Scholar, Examine.com, Reddit, Longecity, Bluelight.ru.) Its advantages seem to be that it’s far more compact than piracetam and doesn’t taste awful so it’s easier to store and consume; doesn’t have the cloud hanging over it that piracetam does due to the FDA letters, so it’s easy to purchase through normal channels; is cheap on a per-dose basis; and it has fans claiming it is better than piracetam.
One thing to notice is that the default case matters a lot. This asymmetry is because you switch decisions in different possible worlds - when you would take Adderall but stop you’re in the world where Adderall doesn’t work, and when you wouldn’t take Adderall but do you’re in the world where Adderall does work (in the perfect information case, at least). One of the ways you can visualize this is that you don’t penalize tests for giving you true negative information, and you reward them for giving you true positive information. (This might be worth a post by itself, and is very Litany of Gendlin.)

This product is a miracle! I have purchased it TWICE because it is so helpful with my memory and cognition. I bought this product because I needed to strengthen my memory and focus, and I wanted to be awake when I did it! I had just switched to a job that is second shift (2PM-11PM) and it was very difficult to adjust to those hours AND learn all of the new technical systems required for my new job. But after taking this supplement, I noticed a HUGE difference in a few days! I was awake and alert like it was 11AM everyday. But it wasn’t like the jolt you sometimes get from caffeine, more like an alertness after a good night’s sleep. No jitters, no headaches, no stomach upset. Just energy and the feeling of being AWAKE. I am now telling all of my co-workers about it!
The original magnesium l-threonate caused me no apparent problems by the time I finished off the powder and usage correlated with better days, further supporting the hypothesis that magnesium helps it. But l-threonate would be difficult to cap (and hence blind self-experiment) and is ruinously expensive on a per-dose basis. So I looked around for alternatives for the followup; one of the most common compounds suggested was the citrate form because it is reasonably well-absorbed and causes fewer digestive problems, so I could just take that. Magnesium oxide is widely available it looks cheap, but the absorption/bioavailability problem makes it unattractive: at a 3:5 ratio, an estimate of 4% absorption, a ZMA formulation of an impressive-sounding 500mg would be 500 \times \frac{3}{5} \times 0.04 = 12mg or a small fraction of RDAs for male adults like 400mg elemental. (Calcium shouldn’t be a problem since I get 220mg of calcium from my multivitamin and I enjoy dairy products daily.)
I took 1.5mg of melatonin, and went to bed at ~1:30AM; I woke up around 6:30, took a modafinil pill/200mg, and felt pretty reasonable. By noon my mind started to feel a bit fuzzy, and lunch didn’t make much of it go away. I’ve been looking at studies, and users seem to degrade after 30 hours; I started on mid-Thursday, so call that 10 hours, then 24 (Friday), 24 (Saturday), and 14 (Sunday), totaling 72hrs with <20hrs sleep; this might be equivalent to 52hrs with no sleep, and Wikipedia writes:
A common dose for this combination is 500 milligrams per day of Lion’s Mane, 240 milligrams per day of Ginkgo Biloba, and 100 milligrams twice per day of Bacopa Monnieri. Consider buying each ingredient in bulk to have stock and experiment with. If you are not experiencing positive results after 12 weeks, try adjusting the dosages in small increments. For example, you can start by adjusting Bacopa Monnieri to 150 milligrams twice per day for a couple weeks. Be patient: the end result is worth the trial and error.
Panax ginseng – A review by the Cochrane Collaboration concluded that "there is a lack of convincing evidence to show a cognitive enhancing effect of Panax ginseng in healthy participants and no high quality evidence about its efficacy in patients with dementia."[36] According to the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, "[a]lthough Asian ginseng has been widely studied for a variety of uses, research results to date do not conclusively support health claims associated with the herb."[37]
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