With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:
Low-dose lithium orotate is extremely cheap, ~$10 a year. There is some research literature on it improving mood and impulse control in regular people, but some of it is epidemiological (which implies considerable unreliability); my current belief is that there is probably some effect size, but at just 5mg, it may be too tiny to matter. I have ~40% belief that there will be a large effect size, but I’m doing a long experiment and I should be able to detect a large effect size with >75% chance. So, the formula is NPV of the difference between taking and not taking, times quality of information, times expectation: \frac{10 - 0}{\ln 1.05} \times 0.75 \times 0.40 = 61.4, which justifies a time investment of less than 9 hours. As it happens, it took less than an hour to make the pills & placebos, and taking them is a matter of seconds per week, so the analysis will be the time-consuming part. This one may actually turn a profit. The final question is: since I was taking an overdose, how did I mess up? I thought I was making sure I got at least the right RDA of elemental magnesium by aiming for 800mg of elemental magnesium and carefully converting from raw powder weight. So I went back to the original references, and scrutinizing them closely, they really were talking about elemental magnesium and indicating I should be getting 400mg elemental a day, but I did notice something: I got the dose wrong for the Solgar pills, it wasn’t 800mg elemental, it was 800mg of citrate - I misread the label. So I went from taking ~130mg of elemental magnesium in the first period to ~800mg in the second; I don’t think it is an accident that the second period seems to have been much worse (between the plot and the time trend). […] The 7 Best Brain Boosting Supplements | Live in the Now … – These same lifestyle changes also protect you from heart disease and diabetes—two 21st century killers that can wreak havoc … Phosphatidyl Serine and Coenzyme Q10. Opt for the best brain supplements and stay fit with an active brain. You should be very careful while choosing the right … […] It makes no sense to ban the use of neuroenhancers. Too many people are already taking them, and the users tend to be educated and privileged people who proceed with just enough caution to avoid getting into trouble. Besides, Anjan Chatterjee is right that there is an apt analogy with plastic surgery. In a consumer society like ours, if people are properly informed about the risks and benefits of neuroenhancers, they can make their own choices about how to alter their minds, just as they can make their own decisions about shaping their bodies. Brain Pill™ is a mental health enhancing and successfully marketed dietary supplement with a balanced composition of scientifically proven nutrients for accelerating and restoring brain function and thereby enhancing the cognitive performance and creating positive impact on behavioral outcomes.Hence the aim of the study is assessment of the effects of Brain Pill supplementation on memory performance in healthy adults with subjective memory complaints. The use of cognition-enhancing drugs by healthy individuals in the absence of a medical indication spans numerous controversial issues, including the ethics and fairness of their use, concerns over adverse effects, and the diversion of prescription drugs for nonmedical uses, among others.[1][2] Nonetheless, the international sales of cognition-enhancing supplements exceeded US$1 billion in 2015 when global demand for these compounds grew.[3]