With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:
And if you obtain your vitamin C from a multivitamin, you receive other key nutrients that many studies over the years have linked to healthy brain function, including beta carotene, iron, zinc, B12 and folic acid. In the June 1999 issue of the Journal of Biology and Psychiatry, for instance, researchers at Sweden's Gotenborg University reported that older people were more likely to score poorly on word memory tests if they had low levels of folic acid.
A new all-in-one nootropic mix/company run by some people active on /r/nootropics; they offered me a month’s supply for free to try & review for them. At ~$100 a month (it depends on how many months one buys), it is not cheap (John Backus estimates one could buy the raw ingredients for $25/month) but it provides convenience & is aimed at people uninterested in spending a great deal of time reviewing research papers & anecdotes or capping their own pills (ie. people with lives) and it’s unlikely I could spare the money to subscribe if TruBrain worked well for me - but certainly there was no harm in trying it out.
along with the previous bit of globalization is an important factor: shipping is ridiculously cheap. The most expensive S&H in my modafinil price table is ~$15 (and most are international). To put this in perspective, I remember in the 90s you could easily pay $15 for domestic S&H when you ordered online - but it’s 2013, and the dollar has lost at least half its value, so in real terms, ordering from abroad may be like a quarter of what it used to cost, which makes a big difference to people dipping their toes in and contemplating a small order to try out this ’nootropics thing they’ve heard about.
Smart drugs offer significant memory enhancing benefits. Clinical studies of the best memory pills have shown gains to focus and memory. Individuals seek the best quality supplements to perform better for higher grades in college courses or become more efficient, productive, and focused at work for career advancement. It is important to choose a high quality supplement to get the results you want.
But when aficionados talk about nootropics, they usually refer to substances that have supposedly few side effects and low toxicity. Most often they mean piracetam, which Giurgea first synthesized in 1964 and which is approved for therapeutic use in dozens of countries for use in adults and the elderly. Not so in the United States, however, where officially it can be sold only for research purposes.
“By drawing on more than fifteen years of scientific research and experience, Dr. Mosconi provides expert advice to prevent medical decline and sharpen memory. Her brain healthy recipes will help you maintain peak cognitive performance well into old age and therefore delay and may even prevent the appearance of debilitating diseases like Alzheimer’s.”
However, they fell short in several categories. The key issue with their product is that it does not contain DHA Omega 3 and the other essential vitamins and nutrients needed to support the absorption of Huperzine A and Phosphatidylserine. Without having DHA Omega 3 it will not have an essential piece to maximum effectiveness. This means that you would need to take a separate pill of DHA Omega 3 and several other essential vitamins to ensure you are able to reach optimal memory support. They also are still far less effective than our #1 pick’s complete array of the 3 essential brain supporting ingredients and over 30 supporting nutrients, making their product less effective.

One thing I did do was piggyback on my Noopept self-experiment: I blinded & randomized the Noopept for a real experiment, but simply made sure to vary the Magtein without worrying about blinding or randomizing it. (The powder is quite bulky.) The correlation the experiment turned in was a odds-ratio of 1.9; interesting and in the right direction (higher is better), but since the magnesium part wasn’t random or blind, not a causal result.
Including comprehensive lists of what to eat and what to avoid, a detailed quiz that will tell you where you are on the brain health spectrum, and 24 mouth-watering brain-boosting recipes that grow out of Dr. Mosconi's own childhood in Italy, Brain Food gives us the ultimate plan for a healthy brain. Brain Food will appeal to anyone looking to improve memory, prevent cognitive decline, eliminate brain fog, lift depression, or just sharpen their edge.
Alex was eager to dispel the notion that students who took Adderall were "academic automatons who are using it in order to be first in their class". In fact, he said, "it's often people" - mainly guys - "who are looking in some way to compensate for activities that are detrimental to their performance". He explained, "At Harvard, at the most basic level, they aim to do better than they would have otherwise. Everyone is aware that if you were up at 3am writing this paper it isn't going to be as good as it could have been. The fact that you were partying all weekend, or spent the last week being high, watching Lost - that's going to take a toll."

Brain Pill™ is a mental health enhancing and successfully marketed dietary supplement with a balanced composition of scientifically proven nutrients for accelerating and restoring brain function and thereby enhancing the cognitive performance and creating positive impact on behavioral outcomes.Hence the aim of the study is assessment of the effects of Brain Pill supplementation on memory performance in healthy adults with subjective memory complaints.
The easiest way to use 2mg was to use half a gum; I tried not chewing it but just holding it in my cheek. The first night I tried, this seemed to work well for motivation; I knocked off a few long-standing to-do items. Subsequently, I began using it for writing, where it has been similarly useful. One difficult night, I wound up using the other half (for a total of 4mg over ~5 hours), and it worked but gave me a fairly mild headache and a faint sensation of nausea; these may have been due to forgetting to eat dinner, but this still indicates 3mg should probably be my personal ceiling until and unless tolerance to lower doses sets in.
Nootropics include natural and manmade chemicals that produce cognitive benefits. These substances are used to make smart pills that deliver results for enhancing memory and learning ability, improving brain function, enhancing the firing control mechanisms in neurons, and providing protection for the brain. College students, adult professionals, and elderly people are turning to supplements to get the advantages of nootropic substances for memory, focus, and concentration.
Or in other words, since the standard deviation of my previous self-ratings is 0.75 (see the Weather and my productivity data), a mean rating increase of >0.39 on the self-rating. This is, unfortunately, implying an extreme shift in my self-assessments (for example, 3s are ~50% of the self-ratings and 4s ~25%; to cause an increase of 0.25 while leaving 2s alone in a sample of 23 days, one would have to push 3s down to ~25% and 4s up to ~47%). So in advance, we can see that the weak plausible effects for Noopept are not going to be detected here at our usual statistical levels with just the sample I have (a more plausible experiment might use 178 pairs over a year, detecting down to d>=0.18). But if the sign is right, it might make Noopept worthwhile to investigate further. And the hardest part of this was just making the pills, so it’s not a waste of effort.

Now, what is the expected value (EV) of simply taking iodine, without the additional work of the experiment? 4 cans of 0.15mg x 200 is $20 for 2.1 years’ worth or ~$10 a year or a NPV cost of $205 (\frac{10}{\ln 1.05}) versus a 20% chance of $2000 or $400. So the expected value is greater than the NPV cost of taking it, so I should start taking iodine.

So where did the idea of Blue Monday come from? The concept of Blue Monday was originally coined by Dr Cliff Arnall in 2005 and distributed by the PR company Sky Travel. It has now become an annual event and can fall on either the third or the fourth Monday of January, using Dr Cliff Arnall’s original mathematical equation that measures a combination of factors such as weather, potential debt post-Christmas, the amount of time since Christmas, potential failure of New Year resolutions and motivation levels, that apparently conspire to make the date the gloomiest of the year.
She says purified water is bad because essential minerals are missing. She makes the ludicrous claim that purified water is “entirely incapable of hydrating you”! As sources of water she recommends coconut water and aloe vera juice, but she doesn’t provide any evidence that they have significantly beneficial effects compared to plain old tap water. She says energy drinks are not good for you because they are “chockful of manufactured minerals and salts.” Again, no references.
It is at the top of the supplement snake oil list thanks to tons of correlations; for a review, see Luchtman & Song 2013 but some specifics include Teenage Boys Who Eat Fish At Least Once A Week Achieve Higher Intelligence Scores, anti-inflammatory properties (see Fish Oil: What the Prescriber Needs to Know on arthritis), and others - Fish oil can head off first psychotic episodes (study; Seth Roberts commentary), Fish Oil May Fight Breast Cancer, Fatty Fish May Cut Prostate Cancer Risk & Walnuts slow prostate cancer, Benefits of omega-3 fatty acids tally up, Serum Phospholipid Docosahexaenonic Acid Is Associated with Cognitive Functioning during Middle Adulthood endless anecdotes.
Pop this pill and improve your memory. Swallow that one and reduce your cognitive decline. We see ads for such products all the time and I suspect they will increase as the baby boomers reach senior citizenhood. The most popular brain boosting supplements are fish oil pills and they are also probably the best studied ones. The results are not encouraging.
Of course, work pressure, post-Christmas financial constraints and time away from family and friends can make us all feel low, however, this can happen on any date depending on our own personal circumstances. Rather than taking a ‘duvet day’ to bail out of commitments on Blue Monday, as the media is suggesting, why not take a more positive stance and engage in some activities that are tried and tested tools to help support better mood? After all, as the evidence suggests, the date or day of the week is unlikely to change these worries for the majority of us. For example, doing some exercise and eating a healthy meal with good company are both scientifically proven to support our mental wellbeing. Low-intensity exercise such as walking sustained over an extended period can help release proteins called neurotrophic factors that improve brain function and support mood, and nutrients such as B12 and Omega 3, are just two of many that have been shown to improve symptoms associated to depression. Our Nutrition Solutions offers more information on nutrition for depression if you want to know more about practical actions you can take yourself through nutrition to prevent or tackle depression.
In addition to diet, there are many other things you can also do related to lifestyle, such as stress management through mindfulness (8) or gentle movement such as pre or post natal yoga (9), which have both shown to be incredibly helpful in encouraging mental wellbeing. If you feel you need extra support, personalised nutritional therapy can be very helpful as there can often be other drivers such as nutrient deficiencies and digestive complaints that can play a significant role in mental health and will need to be addressed in a way that is tailored to the individual. 
Some work has been done on estimating the value of IQ, both as net benefits to the possessor (including all zero-sum or negative-sum aspects) and as net positive externalities to the rest of society. The estimates are substantial: in the thousands of dollars per IQ point. But since increasing IQ post-childhood is almost impossible barring disease or similar deficits, and even increasing childhood IQs is very challenging, much of these estimates are merely correlations or regressions, and the experimental childhood estimates must be weakened considerably for any adult - since so much time and so many opportunities have been lost. A wild guess: $1000 net present value per IQ point. The range for severely deficient children was 10-15 points, so any normal (somewhat deficient) adult gain must be much smaller and consistent with Fitzgerald 2012’s ceiling on possible effect sizes (small).
The principal metric would be mood, however defined. Zeo’s web interface & data export includes a field for Day Feel, which is a rating 1-5 of general mood & quality of day. I can record a similar metric at the end of each day. 1-5 might be a little crude even with a year of data, so a more sophisticated measure might be in order. The first mood study is paywalled so I’m not sure what they used, but Shiotsuki 2008 used State-Trait of Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and Profiles of Mood States Test (POMS). The full POMS sounds too long to use daily, but the Brief POMS might work. In the original 1987 paper A brief POMS measure of distress for cancer patients, patients answering this questionnaire had a mean total mean of 10.43 (standard deviation 8.87). Is this the best way to measure mood? I’ve asked Seth Roberts; he suggested using a 0-100 scale, but personally, there’s no way I can assess my mood on 0-100. My mood is sufficiently stable (to me) that 0-5 is asking a bit much, even.
In my SkepDoc column in Skeptic magazine (text available online) I reviewed the video series “Awakening from Alzheimer’s,” in which a journalist interviews numerous “experts” and claims that Alzheimer’s is for the most part preventable and can be reversed in 9 out of 10 patients! The recommendations of those “experts” are all over the map. There is nothing even remotely approaching a scientific consensus. They claim the main cause of Alzheimer’s is everything from gluten to obesity to lack of sleep to chronic Lyme disease to toxins spewed by “leaky gut” syndrome. They claim to have reversed Alzheimer’s with a wide variety of treatments: everything from coconut oil to a ketogenic diet to probiotics to strenuous exercise to various long lists of dietary supplements to psychological interventions that are considered successful if they make patients cry. There is no satisfactory evidence to support any of their claims.
Dr. Mosconi: I love apples. When I’m at the office though, I’ll bring homemade trail mix [made with] higher quality dried fruit, nuts and seeds. [It's] packed with brain-essential nutrients that come from goji berries, Brazil nuts, walnuts, cacao nibs, pistachios, hemp hearts and  more. Plus, I drink plenty of rose water throughout the day, which is very anti-inflammatory.

According to the official website, Cognizin is based on Citicoline, which is a highly beneficial nutrient that’s useful for assisting certain brain functions that are related to mental focus and cognitive processing. What’s more, it’s shown to improve your brain’s metabolism regarding the use of acetylcholine, which is an important neurotransmitter involved in the storage and processing of memory.
Recent findings also suggest that taking extra vitamins could help preserve memory, especially as we age. Researchers at Australia's University of Sydney tested 117 people in a retirement home by putting them through a battery of mental tests that included remembering a string of words, listing as many words as possible that begin with a certain letter of the alphabet, and doing mental addition and subtraction. Those who regularly took vitamin C, they found, scored higher on the tests.

There’s not much to say here because there are no side-effects, which you can associate with Brain Pill. To this date, there hasn’t been a single report about the serious side-effects, so you can have the total peace of mind when it comes to this product. Brain Pill is about its 100% natural and harmless ingredients. There’s nothing artificial about it. There are no harmful chemicals. Therefore, there’s nothing to worry about. For what is worth, you are strongly advised to consult with your doctor first if you are suffering from an existing precondition or you are using special medication. In addition, you should exercise your brain on a regular basis to maximize the effectiveness of Brain Pill. So far, you kept hearing that the only way of delaying the negative aging effects on your brain was to engage yourself in mental activities. That’s true, but it is also true that you can achieve so much more when these activities are combined with natural supplements, such as Brain Pill. If you keep your brain occupied by doing cognitive tasks, such as playing memory games or solving crossword puzzles, and you use Brain Pill on a regular basis, you can expect significant improvements of your brain power and mental sharpness.

…It is without activity in man! Certainly not for the lack of trying, as some of the dosage trials that are tucked away in the literature (as abstracted in the Qualitative Comments given above) are pretty heavy duty. Actually, I truly doubt that all of the experimenters used exactly that phrase, No effects, but it is patently obvious that no effects were found. It happened to be the phrase I had used in my own notes.
Siberian Ginseng: Also known as Eleutherococcus senticosus, this herb is native to Russia, China, Japan and other areas of east Asia.  There is not a lot of western research backing Siberian Ginseng as a nootropic yet, but the supplement has been used in traditional medicine in the Far East for quite some time.  Plenty of anecdotal evidence backs it up as an excellent memory and attention enhancer.
There are a number of smart drugs on the market, the most well-known of which are probably Adderall and Ritalin. Both are technically known as psychostimulants, which means that they stimulate increased activity of the central nervous system: the brain and spinal cord. There are also two other common smart drugs, specifically Modafinil and a class of something called “ampakines”. You’re about to learn how each of them works and the benefits and potential risks therein.
It is important that this type of approach is discussed with a qualified health professional, such as a registered nutritional therapist, to ensure it is an appropriate strategy for you, as well as to help you avoid missing out on vital nutrients, whilst eliminating certain foods. They can also provide advice on improving your longer term health, which over time may allow for foods to be reintroduced without negative symptoms occurring.

Long story short, aging is your brain’s worst enemy. The same applies to all organs of our body, but the brain suffers the most. Both neurotransmitters and neurons are taking the blow too. As a result, the neuron communication is affected. Now, this may seem like the rocket science to you, but it’s enough to say, serotonin and dopamine are the most important neurotransmitters. Without these components, you can forget about good mood. Serotonin and dopamine levels drop at a rate of approximately 10% for every decade you add to your age.
According to Dr Vivette Glover, Director of the Foetal and Neonatal Stress and Research Centre, at any one time during pregnancy, one in every ten women will be depressed and around one in every thirty will be depressed both during pregnancy and the postnatal period (1). It is not yet understood exactly what causes the symptoms associated to depression during and after pregnancy. However, factors such as the large changes that the body undergoes due to the demands of the growing foetus, as well as breastfeeding and potential sleep deprivation, can all play a significant role in how the body deals with stress. It is during this period of time that our bodies require more nourishment from food than ever and it can also be at exactly this time when we perhaps struggle to prioritise nutrition due to lack of energy, loss of appetite or sickness. 
Amphetamine – systematic reviews and meta-analyses report that low-dose amphetamine improved cognitive functions (e.g., inhibitory control, episodic memory, working memory, and aspects of attention) in healthy people, and in individuals with ADHD.[21][22][23][25] A 2014 systematic review noted that low doses of amphetamine also improved memory consolidation, in turn leading to improved recall of information in non-ADHD youth.[23] It also improved task saliency (motivation to perform a task) and performance on tedious tasks that required a high degree of effort.[22][24][25]
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