With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:
The power calculation indicates a 20% chance of getting useful information. My quasi-experiment has <70% chance of being right, and I preserve a general skepticism about any experiment, even one as well done as the medical student one seems to be, and give that one a <80% chance of being right; so let’s call it 70% the effect exists, or 30% it doesn’t exist (which is the case in which I save money by dropping fish oil for 10 years).
Is 200 enough? There are no canned power functions for the ordinal logistic regression I would be using, so the standard advice is to estimate power by simulation: generating thousands of new datasets where we know by construction that the binary magnesium variable increases MP by 0.27 (such as by bootstrapping the original Noopept experiment’s data), and seeing how often in this collection the cutoff of statistical-significance is passed when the usual analysis is done (background: CrossValidated or Power Analysis and Sample Size Estimation using Bootstrap). In this case, we leave alpha at 0.05, reuse the Noopept experiment’s data with its Magtein correlation, and ask for the power when n=200
3 days later, I’m fairly miserable (slept poorly, had a hair-raising incident, and a big project was not received as well as I had hoped), so well before dinner (and after a nap) I brew up 2 wooden-spoons of Malaysia Green (olive-color dust). I drank it down; tasted slightly better than the first. I was feeling better after the nap, and the kratom didn’t seem to change that.
Nootropics, also known as ‘brain boosters’, or ‘cognitive enhancers’ are made up of a variety of artificial and natural compounds that help in enhancing the cognitive activities of the brain by regulating or altering the production of neurochemicals and neurotransmitters in the brain. It improves blood flow, stimulates neurogenesis (the process by which neurons are produced in the body by neural stem cells), enhances nerve growth rate, modifies synapses, and improves cell membrane fluidity. Thus, positive changes are created within your body, which helps you to function optimally; whatever be your current lifestyle and individual needs.
If you are looking for a way to maximize brain power I have come across a great product named Brain Abundance. Here are a list of the ingridients, folic acid, grape seed extract, L-Glutamine, phenylalanine, sensoril, rhodiola, vitamin b-12, astaxanthin, niacinamide, zinc picolinate, resveratrol, vitamin b-6, ginseng. I have personally taken this product and have had great results with the following: cognitive function, healthy memory, stress and anxiety, positive mood and mind, better sleep, focus and mental clarity, and much more. Feel free to find out more information at:
The abuse liability of caffeine has been evaluated.147,148 Tolerance development to the subjective effects of caffeine was shown in a study in which caffeine was administered at 300 mg twice each day for 18 days.148 Tolerance to the daytime alerting effects of caffeine, as measured by the MSLT, was shown over 2 days on which 250 g of caffeine was given twice each day48 and to the sleep-disruptive effects (but not REM percentage) over 7 days of 400 mg of caffeine given 3 times each day.7 In humans, placebo-controlled caffeine-discontinuation studies have shown physical dependence on caffeine, as evidenced by a withdrawal syndrome.147 The most frequently observed withdrawal symptom is headache, but daytime sleepiness and fatigue are also often reported. The withdrawal-syndrome severity is a function of the dose and duration of prior caffeine use…At higher doses, negative effects such as dysphoria, anxiety, and nervousness are experienced. The subjective-effect profile of caffeine is similar to that of amphetamine,147 with the exception that dysphoria/anxiety is more likely to occur with higher caffeine doses than with higher amphetamine doses. Caffeine can be discriminated from placebo by the majority of participants, and correct caffeine identification increases with dose.147 Caffeine is self-administered by about 50% of normal subjects who report moderate to heavy caffeine use. In post-hoc analyses of the subjective effects reported by caffeine choosers versus nonchoosers, the choosers report positive effects and the nonchoosers report negative effects. Interestingly, choosers also report negative effects such as headache and fatigue with placebo, and this suggests that caffeine-withdrawal syndrome, secondary to placebo choice, contributes to the likelihood of caffeine self-administration. This implies that physical dependence potentiates behavioral dependence to caffeine.
Like everything else in your body, the brain cannot work without energy. The ability to concentrate and focus comes from an adequate, steady supply of energy - in the form of glucose in our blood to the brain. Achieve this by choosing wholegrains with a low-GI, which release glucose slowly into the bloodstream, keeping you mentally alert throughout the day. Opt for 'brown' wholegrain cereals, granary bread, rice and pasta.
If I assume that the coefficient of +1.22 for as.logical(Magnesium.citrate)TRUE’s effect on MP in the previous analysis represents the true causal effect of 0.156g elemental magnesium without any overdose involved and that magnesium would have a linear increase (up until overdose), then one might argue that optimistically 0.078 would cause an increase of ~0.61. Or one could eyeball the graph and note that the LOESS lines look like at the magnesium peak improved by <+0.5 over the long-run baseline of ~3 Then one could do a power estimate with those 2 estimates.
Elaborating on why the psychological side effects of testosterone injection are individual dependent: Not everyone get the same amount of motivation and increased goal seeking from the steroid and most people do not experience periods of chronic avolition. Another psychological effect is a potentially drastic increase in aggression which in turn can have negative social consequences. In the case of counterfactual Wedrifid he gets a net improvement in social consequences. He has observed that aggression and anger are a prompt for increased ruthless self-interested goal seeking. Ruthless self-interested goal seeking involves actually bothering to pay attention to social politics. People like people who do social politics well. Most particularly it prevents acting on contempt which is what Wedrifid finds prompts the most hostility and resentment in others. Point is, what is a sanity promoting change in one person may not be in another.
But Baldino may have been overly modest. In 2002, researchers at Cambridge University gave 60 healthy young male volunteers a battery of standard cognitive tests. One group received modafinil, the other a placebo. The modafinil group performed better on several tasks, such as the "digit span" test, in which subjects are asked to repeat increasingly longer strings of numbers forwards, then backwards. They also did better in recognising repeated visual patterns and at a spatial-planning challenge known as the Tower of London task. (It's not nearly as fun as it sounds.) Writing in the journal Psychopharmacology, the study's authors said the results suggested that "modafinil offers significant potential as a cognitive enhancer".
More photos from this reportage are featured in Quartz’s new book The Objects that Power the Global Economy. You may not have seen these objects before, but they’ve already changed the way you live. Each chapter examines an object that is driving radical change in the global economy. This is from the chapter on the drug modafinil, which explores modifying the mind for a more productive life.
Whether you want to optimise your nutrition during exam season or simply want to stay sharp in your next work meeting, paying attention to your diet can really pay off. Although there is no single 'brain food' that can protect against age-related disorders such as Alzheimers' or dementia, and there are many other medical conditions that can affect the brain, paying attention to what you eat gives you the best chance of getting all the nutrients you need for cognitive health.
Pop this pill and improve your memory. Swallow that one and reduce your cognitive decline. We see ads for such products all the time and I suspect they will increase as the baby boomers reach senior citizenhood. The most popular brain boosting supplements are fish oil pills and they are also probably the best studied ones. The results are not encouraging. When all the studies are pooled, we are left with the possibility of a barely significant improvement in recalling lists of words soon after they have been learned, but the effect does not last. Extracts of the ginkgo biloba tree are also popular, and here the prospects are even dimmer. There is no impact on memory, despite claims of increased circulation in the brain. And ginkgo can interfere with the action of anticoagulants and has also been shown to be an animal carcinogen.
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Magnesium supplementation improves indicators of low magnesium status and inflammatory stress in adults older than 51 years with poor quality sleep. Magnes Res, 23(4), 158-168. doi:10.1684/mrh.2010.0220
Running low on gum (even using it weekly or less, it still runs out), I decided to try patches. Reading through various discussions, I couldn’t find any clear verdict on what patch brands might be safer (in terms of nicotine evaporation through a cut or edge) than others, so I went with the cheapest Habitrol I could find as a first try of patches (Nicotine Transdermal System Patch, Stop Smoking Aid, 21 mg, Step 1, 14 patches) in May 2013. I am curious to what extent nicotine might improve a long time period like several hours or a whole day, compared to the shorter-acting nicotine gum which feels like it helps for an hour at most and then tapers off (which is very useful in its own right for kicking me into starting something I have been procrastinating on). I have not decided whether to try another self-experiment.
Eat a healthy diet. While the best nootropic supplements can help fuel your brain, they cannot fill every gap in your diet. If you want your brain to function at its best, a healthy, nutritious, varied diet is essential. Make sure that you are eating fatty fish and foods fortified with DHA omega-3 fatty acids. Get plenty of vitamin E and antioxidants like lutein.
Cytisine is not known as a stimulant and I’m not addicted to nicotine, so why give it a try? Nicotine is one of the more effective stimulants available, and it’s odd how few nicotine analogues or nicotinic agonists there are available; nicotine has a few flaws like short half-life and increasing blood pressure, so I would be interested in a replacement. The nicotine metabolite cotinine, in the human studies available, looks intriguing and potentially better, but I have been unable to find a source for it. One of the few relevant drugs which I can obtain is cytisine, from Ceretropic, at 2x1.5mg doses. There are not many anecdotal reports on cytisine, but at least a few suggest somewhat comparable effects with nicotine, so I gave it a try.
Began double-blind trial. Today I took one pill blindly at 1:53 PM. at the end of the day when I have written down my impressions and guess whether it was one of the Adderall pills, then I can look in the baggy and count and see whether it was. there are many other procedures one can take to blind oneself (have an accomplice mix up a sequence of pills and record what the sequence was; don’t count & see but blindly take a photograph of the pill each day, etc.) Around 3, I begin to wonder whether it was Adderall because I am arguing more than usual on IRC and my heart rate seems a bit high just sitting down. 6 PM: I’ve started to think it was a placebo. My heart rate is back to normal, I am having difficulty concentrating on long text, and my appetite has shown up for dinner (although I didn’t have lunch, I don’t think I had lunch yesterday and yesterday the hunger didn’t show up until past 7). Productivity wise, it has been a normal day. All in all, I’m not too sure, but I think I’d guess it was Adderall with 40% confidence (another way of saying placebo with 60% confidence). When I go to examine the baggie at 8:20 PM, I find out… it was an Adderall pill after all. Oh dear. One little strike against Adderall that I guessed wrong. It may be that the problem is that I am intrinsically a little worse today (normal variation? come down from Adderall?).
✅ ENERGIZE - REJUVENATE & SUPPORT YOUR BRAIN WITH OUR UNIQUE DAY & NIGHT FORMULA - Steele Spirit Neuro Brain Clarity, is an All Natural 24hr Nootropics brain booster, formulated by an anti-ageing expert - Unlike other Brain Supplements, It provides your brain with the Day and Night support it requires to help you function better during the day and then supports learning, memory retention, repair and rejuvenation while you sleep. An explanation for each ingredient is the "Product Description."
The drug methylphenidate is marketed as the brand Ritalin and used to treat children and adults with ADHD. As of 2011, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 11 percent of Americans aged 4-17 were diagnosed with ADHD. The high number of people diagnosed with ADHD means that there is a vast amount of prescription drugs to treat this condition in medicine cabinets across the US. Ultimately, some of these drugs get diverted into the hands of non-prescribed users, such as college students who believe they may be able to improve their studying and performance on exams by taking these drugs.
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Sun: This is a day I devote to spiritual disciplines and deep personal exploration, along with a hefty dose of neurogenesis, and for a day such as this, I’ll use a more potent neuron sprouting and ego-dissolving mix – most notably a blend of psilocybin microdose with Lion’s Mane extract and niacin (if the skin flush and increased blood flow from niacin tends to be too much for you, you can also use “nicotinamide riboside”, a form of vitamin B3 that has similar effects without the flushing).
After we had ordered beers he said: "One of the most impressive features of being a student is how aware you are of a 24-hour work cycle. When you conceive of what you have to do for school, it's not in terms of nine to five but in terms of what you can physically do in a week while still achieving a variety of goals - social, romantic, extracurricular, CV-building, academic."
Research on animals has shown that intermittent fasting — limiting caloric intake at least two days a week — can help improve neural connections in the hippocampus and protect against the accumulation of plaque, a protein prevalent in the brains of people with Alzheimer’s disease. Research has also shown that intermittent fasting helped reduce anxiety in mice.
Perhaps the most well-known natural nootropic stimulant and neuroenhancer is caffeine. Caffeine has been shown to prevent memory deficits in experimental models of Alzheimer’s disease and may even restore memory following impairment. In studies performed with college students, caffeine was shown to have particularly potent effects on memory improvement during students’ non-optimal time of day, in this case, early in the morning. Caffeine’s benefits go even further because it’s never found in an isolated vacuum in nature, meaning that it’s always located in some kind of plant such as green tea or bean such as coffee that carry additional beneficial compounds which often enhance the effects of caffeine, including, most notably, certain cholesterols, polyphenols and antioxidants. In fact, one study determined that caffeine alone does not account for the benefits caused by coffee consumption. Rather, the phytochemical content of coffee (coffee contains over 1,000 different natural chemicals!) gives it potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties that complement the neuroprotective effects of caffeine on the central nervous system.
We can read off the results from the table or graph: the nicotine days average 1.1% higher, for an effect size of 0.24; however, the 95% credible interval (equivalent of confidence interval) goes all the way from 0.93 to -0.44, so we cannot exclude 0 effect and certainly not claim confidence the effect size must be >0.1. Specifically, the analysis gives a 66% chance that the effect size is >0.1. (One might wonder if any increase is due purely to a training effect - getting better at DNB. Probably not26.)
purpose of this research study titled ‘Nootropics Market – Growth, Future Prospects, and Competitive Analysis, 2016 – 2024’ is to provide investors, developers, company executives and industry participants with in-depth analysis to allow them to take strategic initiatives and decisions related to the prospects in the global nootropics products market.
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After we had ordered beers he said: "One of the most impressive features of being a student is how aware you are of a 24-hour work cycle. When you conceive of what you have to do for school, it's not in terms of nine to five but in terms of what you can physically do in a week while still achieving a variety of goals - social, romantic, extracurricular, CV-building, academic."
I can’t try either of the products myself – I am pregnant and my doctor doesn’t recommend it – but my husband agrees to. He describes the effect of the Nootrobox product as like having a cup of coffee but not feeling as jittery. “I had a very productive day, but I don’t know if that was why,” he says. His Nootroo experience ends after one capsule. He gets a headache, which he is convinced is related, and refuses to take more. “It is just not a beginner friendly cocktail,” offers Noehr.
DNB-wise, eyeballing my stats file seems to indicate a small increase: when I compare peak scores D4B scores, I see mostly 50s and a few 60s before piracetam, and after starting piracetam, a few 70s mixed into the 50s and 60s. Natural increase from training? Dunno - I’ve been stuck on D4B since June, so 5 or 10% in a week or 3 seems a little suspicious. A graph of the score series27:
This is why it was so refreshing to stumble across Dr. Lisa Mosconi's new book "Brain Food: The Surprising Power of Eating for Cognitive Power" . "Our brains aren't keeping up with the historical change in dietary consumptions", says Dr. Lisa. And it's quite evident in her book when she does a historical overview and draws an important relationship between what our ancestors were eating and the concept of longevity. Her contribution to the fascinating new world of "neuro-nutrition" differs drastically from the diet culture we are all so used to and can help us understand why including (and excluding) certain foods, will actually boost our brain health.
I noticed on SR something I had never seen before, an offer for 150mgx10 of Waklert for ฿13.47 (then, ฿1 = $3.14). I searched and it seemed Sun was somehow manufacturing armodafinil! Interesting. Maybe not cost-effective, but I tried out of curiosity. They look and are packaged the same as the Modalert, but at a higher price-point: 150 rather than 81 rupees. Not entirely sure how to use them: assuming quality is the same, 150mg Waklert is still 100mg less armodafinil than the 250mg Nuvigil pills.
I decided to try out day-time usage on 2 consecutive days, taking the 100mg at noon or 1 PM. On both days, I thought I did feel more energetic but nothing extraordinary (maybe not even as strong as the nicotine), and I had trouble falling asleep on Halloween, thinking about the meta-ethics essay I had been writing diligently on both days. Not a good use compared to staying up a night.
Nootropics may seem attractive to anyone who wants to try to improve their cognitive function and is willing to purchase powders, pills and other forms of these natural and synthetic supplements. Nootropic users have their own terminology, referring to measured combinations of nootropics and vitamins and minerals as “stacks.” For instance, Danger and Play, a site for active people, features a stack for beginners. The recipe includes 1600 mg of the piracetam along with recommended dosages of supplements such as ALCAR, rhodiola and magnesium. There are recipes for morning, afternoon and night, thus providing daylong guidance on how to most effectively stack for more energy, greater concentration, and improved information retention. The stack tip specifically states that the ingredients are not addictive, especially if taken in strict accordance with the recipe.
Ampakines bind to AMPARs to block uptake of glutamate, thereby increasing synaptic responses, and this has indeed been shown to minimize the effects of conditions such as Alzheimer’s. Ampakines are also being studied as possible treatments for schizophrenia, depression, ADHD and more. But there is a huge risk associated with ampakine consumption. They are now tightly regulated because if you exceed a safe dosage, you will begin to suffer neuronal damage from glutamate toxicity, which leads to some of the very conditions that ampakines are thought to attenuate. Ampakine consumption can also lead to a decrease in long-term synaptic depression (LTD), a process by which specific synapses (the space between neurons across which information is sent) are intentionally weakened in order to avoid a plateau in the efficiency of your synapses. In other words, it allows your neurons and their connections to continue growing in efficiency. LTD is believed to be necessary for healthy synaptic plasticity (the adaptability of synapses), memory function and motor skills. To be honest, there is debate over whether cognitive functions like motor learning are truly dependent upon LTD, but it is possible that if you were to take a higher-than-recommended dose of an ampakine, the overstimulation that would result may lead to suppressed LTD and consequently to poor memory and motor function.
Factor analysis. The strategy: read in the data, drop unnecessary data, impute missing variables (data is too heterogeneous and collected starting at varying intervals to be clean), estimate how many factors would fit best, factor analyze, pick the ones which look like they match best my ideas of what productive is, extract per-day estimates, and finally regress LLLT usage on the selected factors to look for increases.
Difficulty remembering. As discussed previously, challenges with episodic memory may start as early as middle age, even if your brain is healthy. As you get older, problems with memory tend to become more and more frequent. Once you reach your mid 30s, you will most likely begin to notice an increased frequency of forgetfulness. At this point, it may become common for you to lose your belongings and misplace your possessions, like your car keys or smartphones. This can truly be frustrating at best. At worst, it can be downright scary. You might also start misplacing names and having more “tip of the tongue” moments.
The principal metric would be mood, however defined. Zeo’s web interface & data export includes a field for Day Feel, which is a rating 1-5 of general mood & quality of day. I can record a similar metric at the end of each day. 1-5 might be a little crude even with a year of data, so a more sophisticated measure might be in order. The first mood study is paywalled so I’m not sure what they used, but Shiotsuki 2008 used State-Trait of Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and Profiles of Mood States Test (POMS). The full POMS sounds too long to use daily, but the Brief POMS might work. In the original 1987 paper A brief POMS measure of distress for cancer patients, patients answering this questionnaire had a mean total mean of 10.43 (standard deviation 8.87). Is this the best way to measure mood? I’ve asked Seth Roberts; he suggested using a 0-100 scale, but personally, there’s no way I can assess my mood on 0-100. My mood is sufficiently stable (to me) that 0-5 is asking a bit much, even.
The powder itself is quite bulky; the recommended dose to hit 200mg of absorbed magnesium leads to ~7g of powder (so capping will be difficult) and the container provides only 30 doses’ worth (or each dose costs $1!). It’s described as lemon-flavored, and it is, but it’s sickly-sweet unpleasant and since it’s so much powder, takes half a glass of water to dissolve it entirely and wash it down. Subjectively, I notice nothing after taking it for a week. I may try a simple A-B-A analysis of sleep or Mnemosyne, but I’m not optimistic. And given the large expense of LEF’s Magtein, it’s probably a non-starter even if there seems to be an effect. For sleep effects, I will have to look at more reasonably priced magnesium sources.
The desire to improve cognitive functioning has probably existed since the dawn of human consciousness. Throughout our evolution, increased mental agility has been associated with fitness and improved odds of survival and success. Although concoctions to stimulate brainpower have existed in Chinese and Indian medicine for hundreds of years, Western nootropics were not developed until 1964.
DAY B-1 1.5 mg B-2 1.7 mg Niacin 30 mg B-6 40 mg Folic Acid 400 mcg B-12 500 mcg Biotin 100 mcg Pantothenic Acid 10 mg Magnesium 100 mg Spirulina Algae Powder 5 mg Tongkat Ali Root 5 mg Panax ginseng 5 mg American Ginseng 5 mg Rhodiola rosea 5 mg Maca Root 5 mg L-Taurine 100 mg Acai Fruit 100 mg Caffeine Anhydrous 100 mg NIGHT Ginkgo biloba 50 mg Phosphatidylserine 125 mg N-Acetyl L-Carnitine HCl 50 mg St. John's Wort 250 mg L-Glutamine 50 mg Bacopa 100 mg Vinpocetine 2 mg Huperzine-A 10 mcg
1 PM; overall this was a pretty productive day, but I can’t say it was very productive. I would almost say even odds, but for some reason I feel a little more inclined towards modafinil. Say 55%. That night’s sleep was vile: the Zeo says it took me 40 minutes to fall asleep, I only slept 7:37 total, and I woke up 7 times. I’m comfortable taking this as evidence of modafinil (half-life 10 hours, 1 PM to midnight is only 1 full halving), bumping my prediction to 75%. I check, and sure enough - modafinil.
Although piracetam has a history of “relatively few side effects,” it has fallen far short of its initial promise for treating any of the illnesses associated with cognitive decline, according to Lon Schneider, a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California. “We don’t use it at all and never have.”
Over the years, science has looked into the validity of this date being the most blue of all dates, however there is little evidence to prove this. There is some research that suggests how weekends are a time when people generally feel happier and less anxious, mostly for those that work full-time Monday-Friday, however there is little difference with subjective mood for other days of the week. Some charities such as MIND, have even said that Blue Monday, which is used mainly as a marketing tool to sell products and stories, can also be dangerously misleading and have even set up the hashtag #BlueAnyDay to help dispel the myth of this date.The idea that as a population we are more likely to feel down on the third of fourth Monday of the year can not only trivialise depression as a medical illness that can be life threatening but can also affect those that live with depression and know too well that feelings associated to this illness are not dictated by a single date in the diary.
He first took up the game in 1995, when he was in college. He recalled: "It was very mathematical, but you could also inject yourself into the game and manipulate the other guy with words" - more so than in a game like chess. Phillips soon felt that he had mastered the strategic aspects of poker. The key variable was execution. At tournaments he needed to be able to stay focused for 14 hours at a stretch, often for several days, but he found it difficult to do so. In 2003, a doctor gave him a diagnosis of ADHD and he began taking Adderall. Within six months, he had won $1.6m at poker - far more than he'd won in the previous four years. Adderall not only helped him concentrate, it also helped him resist the impulse to keep playing losing hands out of boredom. In 2004, Phillips asked his doctor to give him a prescription for Provigil, which he added to his Adderall regimen. He took 200-300mg of Provigil a day, which he felt helped him settle into an even more serene and objective state of mindfulness; as he put it, he felt "less like a participant than an observer - and a very effective one". Though Phillips sees neuroenhancers as essentially steroids for the brain, they haven't yet been banned from poker competitions.
Nootropics. You might have heard of them. The “limitless pill” that keeps Billionaires rich. The ‘smart drugs’ that students are taking to help boost their hyperfocus. The cognitive enhancers that give corporate executives an advantage. All very exciting. But as always, the media are way behind the curve. Yes, for the past few decades, cognitive enhancers were largely sketchy substances that people used to grasp at a short term edge at the expense of their health and wellbeing. But the days of taking prescription pills to pull an all-nighter are so 2010. The better, safer path isn’t with these stimulants but with nootropics. Nootropics consist of supplements and substances which enhance your cognition, in particular when it comes to motivation, creativity, memory, and other executive functions.