With just 16 predictions, I can’t simply bin the predictions and say yep, that looks good. Instead, we can treat each prediction as equivalent to a bet and see what my winnings (or losses) were; the standard such proper scoring rule is the logarithmic rule which pretty simple: you earn the logarithm of the probability if you were right, and the logarithm of the negation if you were wrong; he who racks up the fewest negative points wins. We feed in a list and get back a number:
Hunters will go to great lengths to gain an edge over their prey. You never know where the margin between success and failure may lie, so you wake up extra early, say a prayer, spray bottled deer piss on your boots, and do whatever else you think might increase your odds. My schedule recently got more demanding thanks to a new baby. With less time to kill and another mouth to feed, I've had to step up my game.
A fancier method of imputation would be multiple imputation using, for example, the R library mice (Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations) (guide), which will try to impute all missing values in a way which mimicks the internal structure of the data and provide several possible datasets to give us an idea of what the underlying data might have looked like, so we can see how our estimates improve with no missingness & how much of the estimate is now due to the imputation:
One of the most obscure -racetams around, coluracetam (Smarter Nootropics, Ceretropic, Isochroma) acts in a different way from piracetam - piracetam apparently attacks the breakdown of acetylcholine while coluracetam instead increases how much choline can be turned into useful acetylcholine. This apparently is a unique mechanism. A crazy Longecity user, ScienceGuy ponied up $16,000 (!) for a custom synthesis of 500g; he was experimenting with 10-80mg sublingual doses (the ranges in the original anti-depressive trials) and reported a laundry list of effects (as does Isochroma): primarily that it was anxiolytic and increased work stamina. Unfortunately for my stack, he claims it combines poorly with piracetam. He offered free 2g samples for regulars to test his claims. I asked & received some.
Cytisine is not known as a stimulant and I’m not addicted to nicotine, so why give it a try? Nicotine is one of the more effective stimulants available, and it’s odd how few nicotine analogues or nicotinic agonists there are available; nicotine has a few flaws like short half-life and increasing blood pressure, so I would be interested in a replacement. The nicotine metabolite cotinine, in the human studies available, looks intriguing and potentially better, but I have been unable to find a source for it. One of the few relevant drugs which I can obtain is cytisine, from Ceretropic, at 2x1.5mg doses. There are not many anecdotal reports on cytisine, but at least a few suggest somewhat comparable effects with nicotine, so I gave it a try.

l-Theanine – A 2014 systematic review and meta-analysis found that concurrent caffeine and l-theanine use had synergistic psychoactive effects that promoted alertness, attention, and task switching;[29] these effects were most pronounced during the first hour post-dose.[29] However, the European Food Safety Authority reported that, when L-theanine is used by itself (i.e. without caffeine), there is insufficient information to determine if these effects exist.[34]
Why? Just think for a moment how much visual, auditory, and sensory information you’re exposed to and required to process every day.  From constant background sounds to big city noise pollution, the phone ringing, artificial lighting, chemical-laden air fresheners circulating smells of fresh linen, electromagnetic fields piercing through your brain, the new procedure you have to learn at work, and a host of other sensory stimuli, the human brain has to organize and deal with this information all while keeping you upright and going. Although the brain has incredible skills and unimaginable capabilities, modern living creates unprecedented stress and sensory overload from all of the information that must be processed every single day.  Sensory overload has even been shown to cause irritability, anxiety, mood swings, depression, ADHD, fibromyalgia, PTSD and chronic fatigue syndrome. The ability of your brain to continue learning, processing, and forming new neural connections is key to maintaining optimal brain health and longevity.
Adderall is composed of a mixture of amphetamine salts – chemical compounds that have numerous potentially positive effects, including increased concentration, awareness and alertness. Amphetamines work, in part, by causing the release of dopamine, a neurotransmitter associated with pleasurable activities like eating. However, an amphetamine-induced release of dopamine occurs automatically – no pleasurable activity needs to occur – but a come-down feeling will likely be experienced eventually, which is associated with feelings of lethargy and mental dullness. Due to this side effect, Adderall cannot be said to be a nootropic.[12]
Power-wise, the effects of testosterone are generally reported to be strong and unmistakable. Even a short experiment should work. I would want to measure DNB scores & Mnemosyne review averages as usual, to verify no gross mental deficits; the important measures would be physical activity, so either pedometer or miles on treadmill, and general productivity/mood. The former 2 variables should remain the same or increase, and the latter 2 should increase.
Bought 5,000 IU soft-gels of Vitamin D-334 (Examine.com; FDA adverse events) because I was feeling very apathetic in January 2011 and not getting much done, even slacking on regular habits like Mnemosyne spaced repetition review or dual n-back or my Wikipedia watchlist. Introspecting, I was reminded of depression & dysthymia & seasonal affective disorder.
To our volunteers: We could not have asked for a more committed, creative, tireless group of voluneers. We hope you count yourself as fierce advocates who helped build a youth-positive city, because we always have. Thank you for giving Brainfood programs a place in your life and for bringing your energy and skills to our community. You took our spark and turned it into a fire, and we’re so grateful.
-Raw cacao is rich in theobromine, a powerful antioxidant known to support cellular aging and reduce the risk of heart disease. Its effects are similar to those of caffeine, as they both are vasodilators and improve blood flow to the brain [except cacao won’t give you jitters]...You can use raw cacao to make cacao tea, or in your smoothies. Dark chocolate with cocoa content of 80% or higher is also rich in theobromine and natural antioxidants. Besides, chocolate makes you happy. I have a small piece of high-quality dark chocolate, like 85% or 90% dark, every day.
Long story short, aging is your brain’s worst enemy. The same applies to all organs of our body, but the brain suffers the most. Both neurotransmitters and neurons are taking the blow too. As a result, the neuron communication is affected. Now, this may seem like the rocket science to you, but it’s enough to say, serotonin and dopamine are the most important neurotransmitters. Without these components, you can forget about good mood. Serotonin and dopamine levels drop at a rate of approximately 10% for every decade you add to your age.
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When we first created the BrainSmart Ultra™ range of natural smart drugs and brain supplements in 2007, our main aim was to deliver the most effective balanced natural smart nutrition supplements for the brain available. We wanted to formulate a range of brain health supporting supplements that not only delivered on its promise to help encourage an individual’s mental energy, concentration and memory but also one that contained, at its core, the perfect balance of neurological health supporting ingredients.
Recent findings also suggest that taking extra vitamins could help preserve memory, especially as we age. Researchers at Australia's University of Sydney tested 117 people in a retirement home by putting them through a battery of mental tests that included remembering a string of words, listing as many words as possible that begin with a certain letter of the alphabet, and doing mental addition and subtraction. Those who regularly took vitamin C, they found, scored higher on the tests.
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Spaced repetition at midnight: 3.68. (Graphing preceding and following days: ▅▄▆▆▁▅▆▃▆▄█ ▄ ▂▄▄▅) DNB starting 12:55 AM: 30/34/41. Transcribed Sawaragi 2005, then took a walk. DNB starting 6:45 AM: 45/44/33. Decided to take a nap and then take half the armodafinil on awakening, before breakfast. I wound up oversleeping until noon (4:28); since it was so late, I took only half the armodafinil sublingually. I spent the afternoon learning how to do value of information calculations, and then carefully working through 8 or 9 examples for my various pages, which I published on Lesswrong. That was a useful little project. DNB starting 12:09 AM: 30/38/48. (To graph the preceding day and this night: ▇▂█▆▅▃▃▇▇▇▁▂▄ ▅▅▁▁▃▆) Nights: 9:13; 7:24; 9:13; 8:20; 8:31.

You have the highest density of mitochondria in your brain’s prefrontal cortex, which helps to explain why I feel Unfair Advantage in my head first. You have the second highest density in your heart, which is probably why I feel it in the center of my chest next. Mitochondrial energizers can have profound nootropic effects! At higher doses mitochondrial energizers also make for an excellent pre-workout supplements.
It is incredibly easy to abuse and become addicted to methylphenidate, and misuse is shockingly prevalent, even among so-called “non-affected” users: with students, biohackers, soccer moms and busy executives popping it – and many of the other smart drugs below – like candy. It’s also not all it’s cracked up to be. Side effects include insomnia, stomach ache, headache and anorexia. Overdoses (which may occur easily as it can be difficult to estimate and regulate dosage) can lead to agitation, hallucinations, psychosis, lethargy, seizures, tachycardia (rapid heart rate), dysrhythmia (irregular heart rhythms), hypertension and hyperthermia. Methylphenidate is particularly hazardous to developing brains, especially those of younger students who are frequently prescribed the drug or who – often in high school and college – use it without a prescription. The prefrontal cortex, located behind the forehead, is responsible for cognition, personality-expression and decision-making, and develops well into the mid-20s, at which point it takes over as the “rational” part of the brain. In the central nervous system, and particularly in the prefrontal cortex, dopamine levels must have a natural rise and fall in order for healthy rational processes (executive control) to develop. By influencing dopamine levels, methylphenidate can negatively impact this healthy cognitive development, especially when it is abused or used too frequently.
Spinach is rich in the antioxidant lutein, which is thought to help protect against cognitive decline, according to researchers from Tufts University. And a longitudinal study at Harvard Medical School found that women who reported eating the most leafy green and cruciferous vegetables had a markedly lower rate of cognitive decline, compared to those who ate the least.
L-Alpha glycerylphosphorylcholine or choline alfoscerate, also known as Alpha GPC is a natural nootropic which works both on its own and also in combination with other nootropics. It can be found in the human body naturally in small amounts. It’s also present in some dairy products, wheat germ, and in organic meats. However, these dietary sources contain small amounts of GPC, which is why people prefer taking it through supplements.
Omega-3 fatty acids—DHA in particular—contribute to a healthy brain. “The brain’s membranes use these fats to improve cellular structure and brain signaling, which translates into better cognitive function,” says Vasanti Malik, ScD, a research scientist in the Department of Nutrition at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. DHA also quells chronic inflammation that can harm brain cells and lead to cognitive decline.

Since LLLT was so cheap, seemed safe, was interesting, just trying it would involve minimal effort, and it would be a favor to lostfalco, I decided to try it. I purchased off eBay a $13 48 LED illuminator light IR Infrared Night Vision+Power Supply For CCTV. Auto Power-On Sensor, only turn-on when the surrounding is dark. IR LED wavelength: 850nm. Powered by DC 12V 500mA adaptor. It arrived in 4 days, on 7 September 2013. It fits handily in my palm. My cellphone camera verified it worked and emitted infrared - important because there’s no visible light at all (except in complete darkness I can make out a faint red light), no noise, no apparent heat (it took about 30 minutes before the lens or body warmed up noticeably when I left it on a table). This was good since I worried that there would be heat or noise which made blinding impossible; all I had to do was figure out how to randomly turn the power on and I could run blinded self-experiments with it.


Our #5 pick is BriteSmart which has a long list of ingredients, which look good on the bottle, but when we actually visited each one, we were left wondering about why some of them had been included. We did like the fact that it contained Vinpocetine and Huperzine A. We felt that this was a good product, but missing some key ingredients such as a supportive vitamin blend.
One of the most common strategies to beat this is cycling. Users who cycle their nootropics take them for a predetermined period, (usually around five days) before taking a two-day break from using them. Once the two days are up, they resume the cycle. By taking a break, nootropic users reduce the tolerance for nootropics and lessen the risk of regression and tolerance symptoms.
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